(MURFREESBORO) The National Weather Service has placed Rutherford County and all of Middle Tennessee under a Wind Advisory for Friday. It will be from 6AM until midnight.
Winds will turn very strong Friday with frequent gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range and a few gusts over 50 mph. Scattered power outages may occur and some localized wind damage is possible. Secure any lightweight or loose outdoor items and, use caution when driving
NWS meteorologists have high confidence in frigid temperatures arriving early next week. Temperatures will start to fall Sunday night. Once they get below freezing, temperatures will likely not rise above freezing again til Wednesday or Thursday. Start getting prepared now! Before the cold arrives, bring your pets indoors, drip your faucets, take care of any sensitive vegetation, and check on your family, friends, or neighbors to make sure they're prepared, too.
As for snow, forecasters are now very confident it's going to snow Sunday night. How much, well, that's where things always get tricky. As of Thursday evening, placement of the highest amounts still look like they are going to be along and north of I-40, especially in the Land Between the Lakes area.
However, now the latest suite of models wants to stretch out the snow potential from not just Sunday night, but into Monday and Tuesday, as well. Sunday night into Monday would have the higher totals, but a secondary wave could bring additional snow to the area, especially east of I-65 on Tuesday.
On the whole, our local NWS believes the probability of exceeding 1 inch anywhere in Middle Tennessee is something like 60-80% across most of the area. But as we start talking about the potential for anyone getting 3 inches or more (Winter Storm Warning criteria), now we`re falling into the 30-40% category and that`s been relatively consistent over the last couple of days.
Meteorologists think, hopefully by Saturday, they'll have a better grasp on how things are looking for Sunday night into Monday.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
210 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
If you stepped outside, you`d think it was March. 50s across the
board this afternoon and with plenty of sun and a little breeze, I
think we`ve been able to mix down some of the dry air we saw in this
morning`s 12Z OHX sounding. Dew points have struggled to get to 30
degrees across the northern 2/3 of the mid-state. In any event, if
you haven`t been able to get out and enjoy today, give `er a try.
Things will go downhill quickly starting tonight.
By midnight tonight, a very sharp trough over the center of the
country will develop a surface low near Arklatex that is expected to
bomb out as it moves into the Ohio Valley tomorrow afternoon. This
is going to cause a multitude of issues across the region, from
severe weather to extremely strong gradient winds. Let`s start with
the gradient winds, because in my estimation, this is going to cause
the biggest problems. Winds will start to ramp up by midnight
tonight, especially for our counties west of I-65. By sunrise, as
our Wind Advisory goes into affect, southeast gusts of 30-45 mph
will likely be occurring across the whole area. Peak gust time looks
to be in the noon to 3 pm time frame. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph with
occasional gusts to 55 mph are going to be possible. Much discussion
was had about the potential for issuing a High Wind Warning,
however, in coordination with most surrounding offices, we`ve held
off on issuing that product and stuck with a very high-end Wind
Advisory. In any event, these winds are going to cause downed trees
and scattered power outages across Middle TN. The stink about this
is the cold air that filters in behind the system. It`s not the
coldest of what we`re going to see in the next 4-6 days, but if you
don`t have power, it`s going to feel like it. Be sure to pay extra
special attention to vulnerable populations tomorrow.
On top of the gradient winds, there is at least a low-end severe
weather threat. We talked about this yesterday and honestly, not
much has changed. Our warm sector GREATLY struggles to develop
tomorrow morning with dew points barely reaching 50 degrees. This is
going to keep CAPE values at 100 J/Kg or lower. Now, if we do end up
getting a bigger push of dew points, then yes, the severe threat
will go up -- and with helicity values where they are, we can`t
ignore the possibility of an isolated spin-up. The more likely
scenario is the potential for any convection to enhance the
straight line wind threat that we already have, even outside
thunderstorms. Look for a weak line of convection to start moving
across the TN River mid-morning tomorrow and it should exit the
Plateau around 3-5 pm in the afternoon.
Strap in. We`re not done yet.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024
So we get beyond tomorrow, and again, let`s not look past tomorrow,
as the wind threat is likely to cause significant impacts, but then
we have to start looking at the snow potential Sunday night into the
first half of the week. Models are still not in great agreement
regarding how this is going to unfold. I think I can say, we`re
still very confident it`s going to snow Sunday night. Placement of
the highest amounts still look like they are going to be along and
north of I-40, especially in the Land Between the Lakes area.
However, now the latest suite of models wants to stretch out the
snow potential from not just Sunday night, but into Monday and
Tuesday, as well. Sunday night into Monday would have the higher
totals, but a secondary wave could bring additional snow to the
area, especially east of I-65 on Tuesday. On the whole, the
probability of exceeding 1 inch anywhere in Middle TN is something
like 60-80% across most of the area. But as we start talking about
the potential for anyone getting 3 inches or more (Winter Storm
Warning criteria), now we`re falling into the 30-40% category and
that`s been relatively consistent over the last couple of days.
Hopefully by Saturday, we`ll have a better grasp on how things are
looking for Sunday night into Monday.
Now the cold. As the snow comes to an end, a CP airmass will drive
into the mid-south and TN Valley. This is going to bring sub-
freezing temperatures to the area for an extended period of time.
Teens and single digits will be pretty common every morning next
week, with Tuesday and Wednesday mornings looking the coldest. Low
to mid single digits are still progged. Much like Sunday after the
winds die down and colder air enters the picture, keeping an eye on
vulnerable populations is going to be imperative mid-week as
afternoon highs under 32 degrees look probable.
