Drought Conditions Worsen

Significant portions of Middle Tennessee have received only 50-80% of their normal rainfall over the past three months, causing drought conditions to intensify. Most areas are either in drought or classified as “abnormally dry,” and the outlook suggests these conditions will persist until spring.

La Niña on the Horizon

The Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Watch, with a 57% likelihood of La Niña developing by late 2024 and continuing into early 2025. Historically, La Niña winters in Middle Tennessee are characterized by mixed temperature patterns and near-normal precipitation levels. However, the region's proximity to the dividing line between warm and cool temperature zones adds uncertainty.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook

From December through February, Middle Tennessee is expected to see above-normal temperatures. Despite this, periods of cold weather and potential wintry precipitation cannot be ruled out. Precipitation levels are projected to remain near normal, which would likely prevent the area from recovering from current rainfall deficits.

Takeaways

While a warmer-than-average winter is anticipated, the season may still bring occasional cold spells and wintry conditions. With precipitation levels expected to align with seasonal norms, the region is unlikely to see significant drought relief until spring.

For updates and further details, visit NWS Nashville or follow @NWSNashville on social media.