Summery: In 2024, Tennessee's agricultural and forestry sectors faced significant challenges due to factors such as drought, land loss, trade deficits, and decreasing demand in foreign markets. These issues led to below-average yields and lower prices for major crops like corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat, resulting in a projected decline of $582.3 million in gross cash receipts compared to 2023. With the industry contributing $103 billion to the state economy, researchers from the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture caution that the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, particularly due to fluctuating trade policies and high input costs. While livestock and animal products showed slight revenue increases, the overall growth in the agricultural sector will be tested in the coming year, highlighting the need for strategic adaptation in the face of economic pressures. Scroll down for a more in-depth look at the annual report details.
Full Detail: In 2024, Tennessee’s agricultural and forestry industrial complex was significantly impacted by six major factors: drought, agricultural land loss, trade deficits, decreasing foreign market demand, below average yields and relatively lower prices for major commodities. Researchers and Extension specialists from the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics also suggest that the outlook for 2025 could vary depending on the sector.
In the annual
economic report to the governor of Tennessee prepared by the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the UT Haslam College of Business, the agricultural and resource economists provide an economic outlook for the state’s farmers and foresters. “The state’s agricultural and forestry industries directly and indirectly contributed $103 billion to the Tennessee economy,” says Andrew Muhammad, UTIA professor of agricultural economics. “2024 was a struggle for many of our producers and sectors. Next year could also be difficult, with trade policy uncertainty, low crop prices, drought- and hurricane-reduced feed supplies and high input costs.” Muhammad is a co-author of the report and holds the Blasingame Chair of Excellence in Agricultural Policy.
In terms of gross output, the agricultural and forestry industrial complex measured 11% of the economic activity conducted in Tennessee in 2024. An estimated 385,743 individuals worked in industries supported by the complex, which is 8.8% of the state’s total employment.
“Due to the dramatic declines in gross revenue in 2024, many crop producers will struggle with obtaining financing for the 2025 crop, which could affect production and result in consolidation in the row crop sector in Tennessee,” Muhammad and his co-authors write in the report. They add that negative factors affecting the livestock, poultry and dairy industries in 2025 will be continued high interest rates when financing operations and equipment as well as inflation and reduced discretionary spending available to consumers.
The report includes economic indicators for both agricultural and forestry production as well as related manufacturing and processing. The data are consolidated from a number of sources, including the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and Economic Research Service (ERS), the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and others.
Corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat are Tennessee’s top crops, and prices for each fell in 2024. Over the last five years prices for each of the commodities have fallen, with cotton prices having fallen the least over five years (10.8% on average), while corn, soybeans and wheat have all fallen by at least 20% during the period 2019-2024.
Tennessee also had below average yields in 2024, which when combined with price declines and changes in harvested acreage, will result in a dramatic decline in gross cash receipts. Based on current estimates of average prices, yields, and acreage harvested, gross cash receipts for Tennessee corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat will decline by $582.3 million compared to 2023, a drop from $2.2 billion to $1.6 billion. For the 2024-2025 marketing year, Tennessee farm-gate prices are projected to be similar: $4.00-$5.20 per bushel for corn; $0.67-$0.78 per pound for cotton; $10.00-$11.50 per bushel for soybeans; and $5.30-$6.50 per bushel for wheat.
The value of animals and animal products increased slightly in 2024, accounting for approximately 40% ($2.10 billion) of Tennessee’s agricultural receipts. At the beginning of 2024, Tennessee ranked sixteenth nationally in terms of the total cattle and calves inventory (1.60 million head including 835,000 beef cows and 25,000 dairy cows), which is the same ranking as a year ago. Tennessee ranked twelfth in total beef cow numbers. Kentucky and Florida are the only states east of the Mississippi River with larger beef cow inventories. Tennessee is ranked fourth nationally in meat goat numbers at 72,000 head. In addition to cattle, with cash receipts valued at $876.7 million in 2024, the state has a significant broiler production industry ($794.4 million). Hogs (2.6% of cash receipts), dairy products and milk (1.9%) and chicken eggs (1.7%) round out the top valuations.
A big question mark for the agricultural sector in 2025 will be U.S. trade policies. In FY 2024, Tennessee’s agricultural and related exports were $2.7 billion, down $313.7 million or 10.4% when compared to the previous fiscal year ($3.0 billion). While exports to China and Germany, two of our top agricultural trading partners, increased—primarily because of China’s interest in purchasing cotton— exports of intermediate products such as soybean meal and oil and other feeds fell by 10.5%, due in large part to a 60% decline in distilled spirits exports to the Netherlands. In better news, related-product exports, which are mostly forest products, were up $15.4 million to a total of $174.8 million (+9.7%).
The following faculty in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics contributed to the agricultural analyses included in the report: Andrew Muhammad, Andrew P. Griffith, Charley Martinez, R. Jamey Menard, Aaron Smith, Sreedhar Upendram and T. Edward Yu.
The University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture is comprised of the Herbert College of Agriculture, UT College of Veterinary Medicine, UT AgResearch, and UT Extension. Through its land-grant mission of teaching, research and outreach, the Institute touches lives and provides Real. Life. Solutions. to Tennesseans and beyond.
utia.tennessee.edu.
